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Probability Theory for Gamers: A Primer
A plain-language primer on outcomes, events, independence and the addition and multiplication rules, with dice and playing card examples worked by hand.
Probability guide
Understand the odds, not the hype.
Independent explainers on probability in games, from dice and cards to loot drops and the house edge. Education only, no betting tips.
146 in-depth guides
17 topics
Oct 2026 latest guide
Featured guides
Guides to start with
Each one links on to more specific articles in its topic.
10 Common Gaming Fallacies Debunked
Ten common reasoning errors about chance, from the gambler's fallacy to chasing losses, each with a short, plain correction and a note on why it feels true.
Probability in Card Games: A Guide for Players
How probability works when cards are drawn from a 52 card deck: dependent draws, changing deck composition, common mistakes and checked worked examples.
Calculating Odds in Roulette and Other Casino Games
How the house edge arises, shown with checked single zero and double zero roulette calculations, and why the same logic applies to other casino games.
Probability in Video Games: A Guide
A broad tour of where chance appears in video games: hit chances, critical hits, loot drops and procedural worlds, and how to reason about each one.
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Foundations
The core ideas of chance and the errors people make about it.
Probability by Game
How chance works in cards, casinos, video games and sport.
Cards and Poker Draw odds, hand odds and poker maths explained. 6 guides Casino Maths How the house edge works and why systems cannot beat it. 5 guides Video Games Drop rates, loot mechanics and randomness in digital games. 9 guides Sports and Esports Win probabilities, upsets and the limits of prediction. 4 guides Dice and Coins Exact probabilities for dice rolls and coin tosses. 11 guides
Design and Decisions
Using probability to build games and make clearer choices.
Methods and Tools
Counting, Bayes and simulation techniques for working out chances by hand and by code.
Chance Beyond Games
Lotteries, statistics in the news and staying safe around gambling.